Monday, September 7, 2009

And then there were 3...

After walking off the field with a 2-1 victory over El Salvador on Saturday, the US has three games remaining in a tightly-packed CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying hexagonal...

Saturday night's win continued to show that the US has a scary trend of surrendering the first goal this year---this match makes the second consecutive home qualifier (with June's win over Honduras in Chicago) that the Yanks have spotted their opponents a lead, and also the second time in this final round that they had to come-from-behind against El Salvador (a team that is rightly entrenched in the 5th spot in the standings), overcoming a 2-0 deficit to rescue a point in the road leg. The back four on Saturday (Spector, Marshall, Bocanegra, Bornstein) were shaky too many times, with Spector and Bornstein equally responsible for numerous giveaways in the defensive half---with Bornstein turning over the ball unneccesarily 20 yards from the endline on El Salvador's goal (though some responsibility also sits with Tim Howard, who overplayed a far-post run). Possible solutions for the Trinidad game? If Jay DeMerit has recovered from his groin injury, pairing him with Gooch Onyewu (back from suspension) would be likely, with Bocanegra moving back out to the left side (while his lack of speed against Trinidad could be an issue, it's far better than having Bornstein out there). Should DeMerit be unable to go, Bob Bradley wouldn't be unwise to keep Bocanegra parked centrally (though he will likely move him out to the left, with Marshall deputizing for DeMerit once again), and play his two best outside backs---Steve Cherundolo on the right, and Jonathon Spector on the left (if it weren't for DeMerit's coming out party at the Confederations Cup, this could've easily been the World Cup backline, should the US qualify).

Regardless, unless the US does better possessing the ball, especially from the backs to the midfield, this could be an uncomfortable final three games...

Heading into these final three matches, the top four teams (3 automatic qualifiers, 4th place playoff spot) are clearly separating themselves from the field...the problem for the US? Realistically, unless the Yanks walk away with maximum points from these matches, it's all too easy---and likely---that they'll fall to the 4th-place spot (a far guarantee from a spot in South Africa, as this leads to a playoff against the 5th-placed team from South America...a team that could easily be Argentina). The good news? Maximum points in these final 3 matches would guarantee (because of a road match against Honduras) that the good 'ol US of A finishes at the top of the hexagonal---and, unlike 4 years ago (when the US won the final qualifying round, but Mexico was reseeded as the top CONCACAF team), will get that valuable spot in the higher pot for the World Cup draw (helping avoid the "Group of Death").

Standings going into Wednesday's matches (which feature USA @ Trinidad, Honduras @ Mexico, and Costa Rica @ El Salvador): 1. Honduras 13 pts, 2. USA 13 pts, 3. Mexico 12 pts, 4. Costa Rica 12 pts, 5. El Salvador 5 pts, 6. Trinidad 5 pts.

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